2020 is quietly entering the end of the countdown stage. Looking back at 2020, from the “black swan” incident at the beginning of the year, the world has entered the normalization of the epidemic. The resumption of work and production in various industries has become the main proposition, and the follow-up continues to witness “history”. 2020 is doomed It is an extraordinary year. The same is true for the robotics industry!
Under the “black swan” incident, China has become the only country in the world that has achieved positive economic growth. Since March, the PMI has returned to above the critical point, and the resumption of work and production in various industries has gradually entered normalization; the manufacturing industry represented by automobiles, 3C, and pharmaceuticals Production and sales have recovered quickly, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has been actively climbing. The growth rate has been restored in September. Many factors indicate that the worst has passed!
For the robotics industry, it has experienced a downturn in 2018-2019, and 2020 is habitually not favored, especially import and export trade, but it turns out that optimists are often successful, and pessimists may not be correct.
The cyclical fluctuations in the downstream industries can be said to be a barometer of the development of the robot industry, especially the demand head industries represented by automobiles and 3C. The cyclical changes will largely affect the demand changes and development trends of the robot industry. Taking the industry as an example, benefiting from the impact of 5G and Apple’s industrial chain, the 3C industry represented by smart wearables, smart phones, PCBs, and semiconductors will usher in high growth in 2020. The 3C industry has also become one of the main driving forces for robot demand. Especially the light and small load robot products ushered in the long-lost high growth.
In 2020, China’s robotics industry will usher in a demand inflection point, and the main pull will come from 3C, new energy and other industries. For robot manufacturers, each iteration of the downstream industry cycle is accompanied by the birth of new opportunities and new challenges. Only a few manufacturers have the “strength” to resist the cycle, and they can anticipate the cycle earlier and be forward-looking The layout of the company quickly stands out and ranks among the top positions in the industry.
Through combing the robotics industry and combining the data and information of the survey, the author deeply analyzes the top ten predictions of the robotics (including mobile robots) industry in 2021:
- 1. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry has continued to return to positive, but the segmented industries are clearly differentiated. The possibility of a full-scale outbreak of downstream demand is almost zero. The future demand growth point for robots is mainly driven by the demand of segmented industries. In 2021, we will focus on sub-industries such as 3C, new energy, semiconductors, and auto parts.
- 2. Affected by the catalysis of the epidemic, downstream mid- and low-end applications continue to be released. The annual sales growth rate of China’s industrial robot market is more than 15%, and the sales growth rate of light and small load products exceeds 20%. The market share of the “four major families” continues to decline. The conversion rate has steadily increased, and it is expected to exceed 40% in 2021.
- 3. More and more robot manufacturers have landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which will inevitably accelerate the formation of head effects in subdivisions, industry integration will accelerate, and the redistribution of the stock market will accompany it, including automobiles and parts, 3C, and 3C. New energy and other industries are the main representatives.
- 4. The entry of technology companies represented by Huawei will continue to optimize the robot development platform from the bottom, to a certain extent, will lower the threshold for robot application development and accelerate the application of robot intelligence.
- 5. More large integrators will extend their business forward and backward, build core software and hardware products forward, further master the core supply chain and control costs; extend business backward, extend from production lines to logistics and warehousing, and extend from warehousing In the back-end operation, it further evolves to a comprehensive solution (service) provider.
- 6. The market share of domestic collaborative robots continues to increase, and the proportion is expected to exceed 70%. With the continued decline in the cost and price of collaborative robots, it is expected to usher in a new turn in the field of commercial services.
- 7. SCARA track players continue to increase, the market pattern is changing, and the established pattern is expected to be broken. The price of SCARA robots continues to decline, and the product form is becoming more and more abundant (such as all-in-one machines, high-load products, etc.). Domestic “dark horses” are born. The “Two Supermarkets” pose a threat.
- 8. The field of machine vision (mainly 3D vision) continues to be hot. In addition to the previous field of positioning/sorting, such as the detection and measurement market segments, the popularity of the market continues to increase, the players continue to increase, the application of 3D vision is gradually enriched, and the market scale is increasing. The speed is expected to exceed 30%.
- 9. As the “hard bones” of core components, although domestic reducers have made progress in the past few years, they are still far from the real import substitution. It is expected that more national team companies will deploy the reducer field in 2021. At the same time, The application focus area of the reducer will be more extended from industrial robots to mobile robots, service robots and other fields.
- 10. Ontology manufacturers’ “small product thinking” (ie selling iron) has gradually failed in the mid-to-high-end market, and replaced by “big product thinking”, that is, software and hardware system solutions, which are closer to end users (understand users) and better Service, higher cost performance, and a certain degree of branding will be the core elements for domestic enterprises to achieve sustained growth.
Written at the end: The robot ecosystem is becoming more and more abundant, from robotic arms (industrial robots), robotic feet (AGV/AMR) to robotic hands (grippers), machine eyes (machine vision), machine skins (sensors), etc., which is positive. At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, China’s industrial robot industry has shown a positive trend of major changes in five years. As the 14th Five-Year Plan begins, the next five years will be even more worth looking forward to.
Link to this article： China’s Top Ten Industrial Robot Market Forecasts In 2021
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